Nigeria could soon face another round of petrol and diesel price increases following renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, which has unsettled the global crude oil market.
Energy analysts say escalating hostilities in the Middle East are already pushing risk premiums into oil prices and could directly affect fuel costs in Nigeria despite recent gains in local refining capacity.
Checks by LEADING REPORTERS in major cities show petrol selling between N824 and N880 per litre, depending on location and logistics. This comes shortly after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price of petrol from N799 to N774 per litre in February 2026.
However, experts warn that the relief may be short-lived if crude oil prices approach the $90 per barrel mark due to the conflict.
The tension has disrupted tanker movements around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. The corridor handles more than 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply, and any threat to it usually sends prices upward.
Speaking on the implications for Nigeria, Kelvin Emmanuel, Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, said the country remains exposed because the Dangote refinery still relies heavily on imported crude.
He said, “Dangote currently processes an average of 18 million barrels of crude oil monthly. Out of this, about 12 million barrels are imported, while he gets about 5.7 million barrels, which is the equivalent of six cargoes, from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.”
He added that rising war risk insurance premiums for tankers would further increase landing costs of crude in Nigeria.
According to him, “If crude prices rise above $90 per barrel, the refiner will have to revise the price of PMS and diesel in Nigeria.”
Emmanuel also questioned the transparency of the naira-for-crude deal, stating, “The government claims that it supplies him nearly 190,000 barrels under the naira-based crude swap but is unable to account for the volume of cargoes given under said arrangement, or specify the equivalent petrol and diesel output.”
Olatide Jeremiah, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, said Nigeria’s dependence on foreign crude makes local fuel prices vulnerable to international shocks.
He explained, “Nigeria is the largest crude oil producer in Africa and at the same time hosts the biggest refinery on the continent and the seventh largest globally. Ideally, a hike in global crude prices should not have a direct impact on local fuel prices.”
But he warned that the situation is different in practice.
He said, “Fuel prices will be at the mercy of oil prices. Petroleum traders in Nigeria have been tracking events between Iran and the US, and a surge in oil prices is expected. For Nigeria, revenue will increase, but Nigerians should brace for higher fuel prices on Monday, no doubt.”
Jeremiah urged the federal government to boost crude production and curb oil theft, describing the crisis as a wake-up call for domestic supply to refineries.
An energy law expert at the University of Lagos, Dayo Ayoade, said Nigeria can no longer shield citizens from global oil price swings following the removal of fuel subsidies.
He noted, “Without subsidies, any crude price increase will directly impact fuel prices at the pump. More revenue may come in, but we must remain cautious.”
Petroleum economist Wumi Iledare cautioned against panic, saying the global oil market is now more diversified than in past crises.
He said, “We must resist the temptation to interpret the US–Iran strike as the beginning of another historic oil shock.”
Meanwhile, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers were watching developments closely.
He stated, “Anything that affects the international oil market will affect local supply and prices. We are watching the trend and the reactions of the refinery and the government.”
