By Salihu Garba-mama Aliyu (#SAGMA), Published on 3rd March 2025

Introduction: How This Article Evolved

This article is a continuation of my previous piece, “Fuel Price Scam: How Nigerian Elites Keep You Enslaved.” It expands upon the issues raised, incorporating feedback, counterarguments, and deeper research into the deceptive pricing mechanisms that have kept Nigerians struggling under the weight of artificially high fuel prices.

In that article, I exposed how Nigeria’s ruling elites, in collusion with foreign rent-seekers and the IMF/World Bank, have deceived Nigerians into believing that they must buy fuel at international rates, even though the crude oil is sourced from our own land. I also debunked the false argument that Nigeria cannot subsidize fuel for its citizens while exposing the hypocrisy of Western nations that heavily subsidize energy, education, and food for their own people.

This article takes the discussion further by examining how the Dangote Refinery—despite having the capacity to meet over 60% of Nigeria’s domestic petroleum needs—was complicit in an elaborate fuel price manipulation scheme that began with extreme inflation of fuel prices, followed by a gradual “reduction” to create the illusion of progress. In reality, Nigerians are still paying far more than they should.

The Dangote Refinery Fuel Price Scam: A Staged Manipulation

When the federal government removed fuel subsidies in May 2023, the official pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) shot up from ₦238.11 per liter to between ₦955 (Dangote Refinery price) and ₦1,200 (retail stations). This sudden price surge—without any meaningful increase in global crude oil prices—was part of a stage-managed scheme to exploit Nigerian citizens while shielding the government from scrutiny.

How the Deception Was Orchestrated

Phase 1: Artificial Price Inflation (May 2023 – Early 2024)

• The elimination of fuel subsidies provided the perfect excuse to artificially inflate the price of petrol.
• Despite the Dangote Refinery beginning production and having the capacity to refine crude at lower costs domestically, it sold PMS at exaggerated prices, aligning with the IMF/World Bank-fueled narrative that fuel should be priced at “market rates.”
• The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery orchestrated a staged confrontation to divert public scrutiny from the sudden and unjustified fuel price hikes. However, in a telling contradiction, NNPCL was later granted exclusive rights to first offtake and sell Dangote’s refined products.

Why? A classic case of vested interests at play.

If NNPCL truly believed in a free market and price deregulation, why did it secure a monopoly over Dangote’s refined fuel? This blatant double standard exposes the deception behind the so-called “market-driven pricing” narrative. It was never about free-market principles—it was about control, profiteering, and ensuring that only a select few benefit at the expense of ordinary Nigerians.

Phase 2: Stage-Managed Price Reductions (Early 2024 – Present)

• Once public frustration peaked, small reductions in fuel prices were introduced, creating the illusion that the market was “self-correcting.”
• From a high of ₦955-₦1,200 per liter, the price was gradually lowered to ₦825 per liter, and further reductions may follow in a controlled manner.
• This staged “reduction” is not a real price cut but a calculated deception designed to pacify Nigerians while keeping fuel prices far above the true cost of domestic refining.

Phase 3: Long-Term Price Fixing and Exploitation

• By inflating prices to extreme levels initially, any later reductions appear “reasonable” in comparison, even though Nigerians are still paying much more than they should.
• The same cartel that profited from the subsidy regime has now hijacked the so-called deregulated market to maintain artificial pricing structures that serve elite interests.

Why This Is a Fraudulent Scheme

• If Dangote Refinery has the capacity to refine crude locally, why was fuel priced at over ₦955 per liter in the first place?
• Why did NNPC and Dangote pretend to be at odds, only to later align in a staged price adjustment?
• Why is the price of PMS in Nigeria still among the highest in Africa despite our crude oil reserves and refining capacity?

The answer is clear: The removal of fuel subsidies was never about free-market efficiency—it was about enriching a select few at the expense of ordinary Nigerians.

Rebutting the Lies: Why Must Nigerians Pay International Rates for Their Own Resources?

Imagine a local farmer in Nigeria who produces palm oil. The cost of palm oil in the international market can never be the same as the price of palm oil sold in local markets where palm oil kernels are abundantly available. Likewise, the price of Aso Oke (a traditional Yoruba fabric) in international fashion markets will never match the price of Aso Oke sold within Yoruba land.

Similarly, electric vehicles designed and manufactured in China cost significantly less in China than in African or American markets due to additional costs such as export duties, transportation, and foreign market regulations. Between domestic and export markets, there are substantial differences in overhead costs—processing, customs duties, and other levies. There are also profit margins factored into international pricing.

So why has the Nigerian government and its oil industry elites—acting in collusion with foreign rent-seekers—brainwashed Nigerians into believing that the country cannot sell its own backyard natural resources at prices cheaper than the international market rate (Reuters Platts)? Worse still, why have they convinced us that Nigeria cannot subsidize fuel to make life easier for its citizens? This grand deception has condemned Nigerians to suffering under artificial fuel scarcity and skyrocketing prices, while a small elite class, in alliance with neocolonialists, reaps the benefits.

In my previous article, “Fuel Price Scam: How Nigerian Elites Keep You Enslaved,” I exposed this fraudulent scheme and outlined the urgent reforms needed to bring down fuel costs and strengthen the naira. I also reaffirmed that subsidy on energy and food is an inalienable right of every citizen—not a privilege.

If Nigeria’s ruling class refuses to heed these patriotic calls for reform and insists on maintaining the status quo, then the 2027 elections will be an opportunity for Nigerians to correct this injustice by electing leaders who genuinely care about the common good.

The Facts Vs. Fallacies

The claim that Nigerians must buy fuel at international market prices is not only false but intellectually lazy and deceptive. The same Western countries that pressure Nigeria to remove fuel subsidies provide massive subsidies to their own citizens in key sectors such as energy, education, and agriculture.

I am a living witness to these subsidies. Having lived in the UK, I have seen firsthand how the British government subsidizes essential services viz-a-viz:

• Education: While international students pay exorbitant fees for university education, UK citizens pay only a fraction of that amount—sometimes what an international student pays for one academic year covers the entire three-year program for a local student.
• Food Subsidies: The same food items that elites in the UK can afford in grocery stores are also accessible to street cleaners and minimum-wage workers because the government ensures price stability through strategic interventions.
• Health Care: The National Health Service (NHS) provides free or highly subsidized health care to all citizens, ensuring that even the poorest receive quality medical attention.
• Energy Support: During economic downturns, European governments provide direct financial aid to citizens to help with energy bills, ensuring that everyone has access to affordable heating and electricity.

So, if these neocolonial powers aggressively subsidize key sectors for their own citizens, why should Nigeria—a country with abundant crude oil—fail to provide affordable fuel for its people? The answer is clear: Nigeria’s ruling elites are complicit in the economic enslavement of their own people.

The “High Refining Cost” Excuse: A Convenient Lie

One of the most common excuses given by the government and oil cartel is that the cost of refining crude oil is too high, making it impossible to sell fuel cheaply. This argument is nothing but a convenient lie used to justify fuel price hikes and the continued importation of refined petroleum products.

Here are the facts:

1. Nigeria Has the Human and Material Resources to Build Local Refineries

• The Ajaokuta Steel Company has the potential to manufacture components for building refineries. With the right investments, Nigeria can design and produce its own branded refining equipment.
• Local engineers and technologists are fully capable of running refineries, provided there is political will and investment in skills development.

1. Other Countries Have Lower Refining Costs—Why Can’t Nigeria Learn From Them?

• Several developing nations with economies similar to Nigeria’s have far lower refining costs per barrel.
• Instead of allowing IMF and World Bank dictates to cripple Nigeria’s energy sector, why not study and adopt cost-effective refining models from these countries?

1. Artificially Inflated Costs Serve Elitist Interests

• Many of the costs associated with refining in Nigeria are deliberately exaggerated to create loopholes for **fraudulent subsidies, inflated contracts, and fuel importation scams.
• The government has failed to prioritize local refining, allowing a few elites and their foreign partners to profit from the importation of refined products at the expense of ordinary Nigerians.

The Hypocrisy of the Nigerian Elite

While Nigerians are told that subsidies are “unsustainable,” the same elites enjoy heavily subsidized luxuries at the expense of taxpayers:

• Government officials receive free fuel allocations, yet they insist ordinary Nigerians should pay high prices.
• Dangote’s refinery benefited from massive tax incentives and government-backed loans, yet it sells fuel at exorbitant prices.
• Foreign interests who push for subsidy removal in Nigeria continue to subsidize fuel and essential goods in their own countries.

This is nothing but economic neocolonialism disguised as “reform.”

Breaking Free from IMF/World Bank Dictates: The Path to Economic Liberation

Nigeria’s continued economic struggles—high fuel prices, inflation, and worsening poverty—are not accidental. They are the direct result of policies imposed by external forces such as the IMF and World Bank, implemented by Nigerian leaders who act as their puppets.

To break free from this vicious cycle, Nigeria must adopt policies that prioritize national interests over foreign economic prescriptions.

How Do We Achieve This?

1. End the Discretionary Pricing System in the Oil Sector

• Nigeria’s petroleum sector must adopt an end-to-end AI-driven hydrocarbon trade and exchange system that eliminates manipulation and ensures real-time transparency in fuel pricing.
• A centralized cloud based hydrocarbon price database must replace the foreign-controlled Reuters Platts system, ensuring that fuel prices reflect domestic production costs, not external market distortions.

1. Revamp and Expand Local Refining Capacity

• Why should Dangote Refinery be the only major private refiner? The government must invest in multiple refineries to prevent price-fixing by monopolies.
• Existing public refineries must be rehabilitated and operated with full transparency to drive down costs.
• The Ajaokuta Steel Company and other local industries should be revived to produce refinery components locally, reducing dependency on expensive foreign imports.

1. Use the 2027 Elections to Elect Leaders Who Reject IMF/World Bank Enslavement

• Nigerians must elect leaders who prioritize national interests over foreign economic dictates.
• The current system benefits only a few elites at the expense of the masses. Citizens must demand economic justice at the ballot box in 2027.

Conclusion: The Scam Is Clear—Now It’s Time to Act

The Dangote Refinery fuel price manipulation, the collusion between the Nigerian government and foreign economic forces, and the artificial price hikes justified by false narratives are nothing but a grand conspiracy against the Nigerian people.

The time for economic liberation is now.

• Expose and reject the lies of the fuel price cartel.
• Demand transparency in the oil and gas sector.
• Elect leaders in 2027 who will fight for Nigeria’s economic sovereignty.

Nigerians must wake up! The only thing standing between economic justice and continued exploitation is our collective will to fight back.

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