The World Bank has described Nigeria’s key assumptions for the 2025 national budget as overly optimistic, citing a significant gap between the projected figures and current economic realities.
In its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update, released on Monday in Abuja, the global financial institution raised concerns over the Federal Government’s projection of crude oil production at 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) and an oil price benchmark of $73 per barrel. The Bank noted that these projections are ambitious, given the current production level of 1.6mbpd and an average international price of $60 per barrel.
However, the Federal Government defended its position, stating that the assumptions reflect the country’s economic potential and are grounded in a forward-looking outlook.
The report presentation was attended by key government officials including the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun; Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu; Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani; Central Bank Governor, Yemi Cardoso; Governor of Plateau State, Caleb Mutfwang; and several private sector leaders.
Presenting the report, Dr. Alex Sienaert, Lead Economist at the World Bank Nigeria Country Office, acknowledged the Federal Government’s recent economic reforms, particularly the removal of petrol subsidies and the liberalization of the foreign exchange market.
He noted that while Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators are largely positive, high inflation remains a pressing concern. He emphasized that for the country to reach its target of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030, its growth rate must accelerate to at least five times the current 3.8 percent.
The World Bank’s report also urged the government to remain committed to its reform agenda and warned that the 2025 budget could result in a wider-than-expected fiscal deficit if not properly managed.
Despite the challenges, the World Bank expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s fiscal outlook, provided that reforms are sustained and public investment in infrastructure and youth development is strengthened.