The European Union has ruled out deploying a full election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, citing worsening insecurity and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 polls.
The decision brings to an end more than two decades of full-scale EU election observation missions to Nigeria.
The EU conveyed its position in response to a letter from the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, inviting the bloc to observe the 2027 general elections.
In its correspondence, the EU reportedly cited the deteriorating security situation across the country and the treatment of its observers and officials after the publication of its final report on the 2023 elections as reasons for its decision.
Rather than the large-scale deployment seen in previous election cycles, the EU is expected to station only a small number of officials in Abuja to monitor developments and report back to Brussels.
Sources familiar with the correspondence said the number of officials could be about three.
There would be no deployment of long-term observers to the states, no short-term observers on election day and no chief observer, unlike previous EU election observation missions in Nigeria.
INEC had invited the EU to observe the 2027 elections, continuing a practice that has been in place since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999.
The EU observed Nigeria’s general elections in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023.
The 2023 mission was the bloc’s seventh election observation mission to Nigeria since 1999, according to its then chief observer and Irish member of the European Parliament, Barry Andrews.
For the 2023 elections, an 11-member core team of experts arrived in Abuja on January 11, six weeks before the presidential election.
The mission later deployed 40 long-term observers across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT.
Short-term observers were subsequently deployed ahead of election day, bringing the total number of accredited observers to 110 from the 25 EU member states, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Canada.
A delegation of the European Parliament also joined the mission for the presidential and National Assembly elections.
The observers remained in Nigeria until April 11, weeks after the February 25 presidential election and the March 18 governorship and state assembly polls.
The EU mission presented its final report in Abuja in June 2023, making 25 recommendations across six priority areas.
The report identified what the mission described as enduring systemic weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral process and said shortcomings in electoral law and administration had hindered the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections while damaging public trust in INEC.
The report sparked protests at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja, with demonstrators accusing the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs and demanding the withdrawal of the report.
At the time, opposition figures and civil society groups alleged that the protests were sponsored by supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, an allegation that was denied.
The EU’s decision comes amid persistent security challenges across parts of the North-West and North-East, the Middle Belt and the South-East.
Sit-at-home enforcement and attacks on electoral facilities disrupted the conduct of the 2023 elections in several states.
Large-scale election observation missions require personnel to travel to polling units, including those in rural and remote communities where security support may be limited, making such deployments increasingly difficult.
The decision could have implications for international scrutiny of the 2027 elections, given the scale and duration of previous EU observation missions.
Other international bodies, including the National Democratic Institute, NDI, International Republican Institute, IRI, Commonwealth and African Union, have also observed elections in Nigeria, although none has matched the EU in the scale and duration of its presence, according to stakeholders.
The EU had committed €39 million in 2022 under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, covering the 2022 to 2027 electoral cycle.
It also committed a further €13 million specifically for technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections.
However, the EU’s correspondence did not indicate whether its decision not to deploy a full observation mission for the 2027 polls would affect those funding arrangements.
The development could also raise concerns about the level of international scrutiny of the 2027 elections amid declining public confidence and voter participation.
Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election stood at about 27 per cent, the lowest recorded since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999.
Stakeholders have argued that the presence of credible international observers provides an additional layer of scrutiny and helps strengthen public confidence in the electoral process.
The 2027 general elections are scheduled for February, with INEC already making preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.
When contacted, the Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Oketola Oriye, declined to comment, saying the information available to him was at variance with the claims.
Similarly, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, declined to comment. Messages sent to her active phone line were delivered but unanswered.
