By Stanley Nwosu
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently directed the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) to ensure that every Nigerian citizen is enrolled and issued a National Identification Number (NIN) by the end of 2026, it was more than a policy instruction. It was a national call to action, one that speaks to the future of governance, planning, inclusion, security, and development.
The directive, strengthened by the signing of the NIMC Act 2026, sets Nigeria on a path toward universal digital identity coverage. It is an ambitious goal, but also a necessary one in a country where identity remains the gateway to nearly every formal system: banking, healthcare, social protection, education, taxation, voting, and public service delivery.
So far, NIMC has registered more than 137.37 million Nigerians in its database. That is no small feat. It represents one of the most significant identity-enrollment efforts in Africa, and a laudable step toward building a country where every citizen can be seen, counted, and served.
But here lies the critical question: How do we know when everyone has truly been captured if we do not know exactly how many people we are?
That is where the Population and Housing Census comes in.
Without current and reliable population data, no national identity programme can confidently claim full coverage. The absence of up-to-date census figures makes it difficult to determine the true size of the population, measure the actual percentage of Nigerians enrolled, or identify the gaps that still exist. In practical terms, it means the country may be moving forward in the dark, working hard, but without a complete map.
The National Population Commission has projected Nigeria’s population to be over 238 million. While such projections are useful for planning, they remain estimates. They cannot replace the precision, depth, and authority of a properly conducted Population and Housing Census. A census does not merely count people; it provides the foundation upon which national decisions are made. It tells the government who lives where, how communities are changing, what services are needed, and where to direct resources.
This is why the next Population and Housing Census is no longer just desirable. It is urgent.
Nigeria cannot plan effectively without knowing itself. A country of this size and complexity cannot afford to rely indefinitely on projections when the demands of development require certainty. Whether the issue is identity management, infrastructure, schools, hospitals, electoral planning, social intervention, or security, the census remains the backbone of evidence-based governance.
For NIMC, the relationship is especially direct. The push to issue NINs to all Nigerians is deeply connected to the census exercise. The two are not competing national priorities; they are complementary ones. Census data gives the country a reliable denominator, the total number of people to be accounted for, while digital identity provides the unique personal record that allows government systems to function efficiently and inclusively.
It is important and relevant to note that the upcoming Population and Housing Census will be biometric based, and there is a plan to use the exercise to identify Nigerians without NIN and enroll them.
That is why NIMC and the National Population Commission must work hand in hand. The success of one strengthens the success of the other. A credible census will help Nigeria measure identity coverage accurately as well as help NIMC enroll the remaining citizens. A robust identity system, in turn, will help support planning, targeting, and service delivery after the census.
At the heart of both efforts is a simple idea that a nation cannot manage what it cannot count, and it cannot fully serve those it has not identified.
Digital identity is no longer a technical issue alone. It is a development issue. It determines access, inclusion, accountability, and state capacity. But digital identity must rest on a sound demographic foundation. That foundation is the census.
If Nigeria must truly achieve universal NIN coverage by the end of 2026 (although the deadline is not feasible), then it must also accelerate the process of counting its people. The road to a complete digital identity system runs through the census. One cannot be fully accomplished without the other.
In the end, the story is not simply about numbers. It is about visibility. It is about ensuring that every Nigerian exists not just in memory or projection, but in the data that drives national progress.
—Stanley Onyeka Nwosu, mnipr, a Communication Strategist, Political Economist, and Development Expert, is the Special Adviser on Media to the Honourable Chairman of the National Population Commission.
